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GEOBOX / Zhambyl Locust Forecast
DISPATCH 03 · 2026 · Zhambyl Oblast, Kazakhstan

2026 Locust Forecast
for Zhambyl region.

PUBLISHEDApril 21, 2026 METHODRandom Forest + Fixed-Effects Panel Regression TRAINING3 089 nymph records · from 5 428 total observations · 2019 – 2023 FORECAST49 543 grid cells at 2 km · Zhambyl oblast
01 · The Problem

3.1M ha
Kazakhstan treated area in 2024 (23% above plan)
Ministry of Agriculture, June 2025
665Kha
Zhambyl 2026 sown area plan — all crops
Zhambyl oblast akimat, April 2026
850Kha
Zhambyl 2026 forecast area at locust risk (prob ≥ 0.5)
GEOBOX model, this forecast
02 · The Protagonists

Dociostaurus maroccanus

Moroccan locust

EmergenceLate Apr – early Jun
HabitatFoothill ephemeral grass
PrefersMild winters, wet spring
Crop targetWheat, pasture, rangeland
2026 median hatchMay 6
Calliptamus italicus

Italian locust

EmergenceEarly May – late Jun
HabitatFarmland margins, pasture
PrefersDry autumn, moderate spring
Crop targetAll crops + pasture
2026 median hatchJune 3
Locusta migratoria

Migratory locust

EmergenceMid Jun – late Jul
HabitatReed beds, river margins
PrefersDry years, low water
Crop targetSummer pasture, rice
2026 median hatchNot modelled *
2026 hatching calendar · peak nymph density and spray windows
APR
APR 15
MAY
MAY 15
JUN
JUN 15
JUL
JUL 15
MOROCCAN · hatch
MOROCCAN · spray window
MAY 06
ITALIAN · hatch
ITALIAN · spray window
JUN 03
MIGRATORY · hatch

03 · Method

Random Forest classifier

Fixed-effects panel regression

Hybrid 2026 extraction

Known limitations

04 · What drives outbreaks

34%
±3days
<500m
05 · 2026 Forecast map

2026 forecast
Hatching probability
0.100.500.90
06 · At-risk districts

Colour rayons by
0 ha 220K ha Forecast hectares at risk (probability ≥ 0.5) · 2026
07 · Action

Calliptamus italicus

Italian locust — PRIORITY

Area at risk5.5%
Vs 2024+0.6 pp
Hatch peakJune 3 (± 5 days)
Spray windowJune 10 – 20
Top rayonsBaizak, Merke

Dociostaurus maroccanus

Moroccan locust — WATCH

Area at risk0.5%
Vs 2024−0.5 pp
Hatch peakMay 6 (± 3 days)
Spray windowMay 10 – 20
Top rayonsTalas, Shu

Locusta migratoria

Migratory locust — LOW

Area at risk< 0.1%
Vs 2024−0.3 pp
Hatch peakLate May – mid June
Spray windowMid – late June
Top rayonsShu & Talas river margins